Yesterday I said that Windows Mobile’s real competitor is Google Android. WiMo has already conceded defeat to Apple’s iPhone in the consumer space. Why? How? You and I, as individual consumers, have not been the target Windows Mobile customer since 2003. As soon as Microsoft’s marketing became phone-centric, the target customers became enterprises running Exchange Server and the mobile phone carriers. Microsoft’s recent purchase of Danger (the firm that sells the youth-consumer-centric Sidekick phone) muddies the picture even more. How are Windows Mobile and the Sidekick related? They sure don’t share the same operating system or run the same applications. They have completely different market focuses. This can only serve to confuse their marketing efforts going forward.
The big unanswered question is who is the market focus for the Google Android based phones? Unless it syncs with Exchange Server or Lotus Notes, it is not the enterprise (at least initially). Google’s multi-mode reference designs (touch and non-touch screen devices) may cause the same mind-share fragmentation that Windows Mobile’s touch and non-touch reference designs do. Given a variety of hardware vendors (again like Windows Mobile), it is hard to imagine that Google’s phone will directly compete or impact on iPhone sales. It will, however, have an advantage in the US by not being locked to a single mobile carrier (AT&T Wireless). My guess is that Google’s phone will take market share directly away from Windows Mobile and what is left of the Treo Palm OS based phones (are new Palm OS phones still around?). So, the follow-up question is: How much damage will the various Google Android phones cause to Windows Mobile smartphone sales? My guess is: A lot. If the Google-based phones are even half as easy to use as the iPhone, half-as compelling, and syncs reliably with the Google cloud services (calendar, contacts, mail, etc.), it will be a huge seller. Just imagine if Google adopts Apple’s Mac vs. PC ads and goes after ActiveSync/WMDC, the lack of media playlists, the slowness of going from app-to-app, and other WiMo weaknesses. It could get brutal in TV commercial-land.
Comments
4 responses to “Windows Mobile and Google Android: Who Is the Customer?”
Look, Surur: You are an avid fanboy who likes to insult people anonymously. I get it. Ok? Again you are entitled to your opinion. But, here are the facts: Microsoft has removed consumer features such as media playlists with each succeeding version. They decided to make a custom device (the Zune) for a media player instead of using a custom version of a Windows Mobile platform. Each generation’s enhancements are mobile operator or enterprise focused. They bought Danger which produces a non-Windows Mobile based popular consumer focused phone (the Sidekick). Finally, every time I go to Redmond to visit with the Windows Mobile team, I come back with the message that the focus is the mobile operator and the enterprise. What do they tell you when you visit with the team? Something different?
Dont mistake your US-centric view for the world. WM is popular in Asia, and the HTC Touch (not even Touch Diamond) outsold the iPhone in Europe.
Just like the Mac, the iPhone has a high profile but low penetration. This wont stop bloggers thinking that media noise = reality.
Again, because you have written WM off, you imagine MS has written of the consumer market. The truth is that after they have finished looking after their business concerns, they are in fact refocussing on consumers, who are even now buying their phones in much higher numbers than the very loud iPhone.
Surur: You are entitled to your opinion but not your ad hominem comments. OEMs are not a customer. They are partners. Although it may be different in some parts of the world, purchases of mobile phones directly from the manufacturer without a mobile phone contract in the US is virtually non-existent (small single digit percentage if that large). I agree with your point that most people buy WiMo phones as individuals. And, this is Microsoft’s current problem. They do not consider these customers at all with regard to design. Look at Windows Mobile 6 and 6.1. The significant changes only mattered to people connecting to Exchange Servers. The other changes were minor. WiMo 6 was essentially Windows Mobile 5 Second Edition (and should have been named as such).
Take a look around you. And, listen to non-techies ask questions of and make comments about phones. They invariably talk about Blackberrys and iPhones. There is no talk or visible purchase of Windows Mobile phones by non-techie consumers who want either a specific function to work well (push email) or ease of use.
Your confusion is caused by this misconception:
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WiMo has already conceded defeat to Apple’s iPhone in the consumer space.
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WM has an installed base of 35 million active users, sold 20 million in the last 12 months and aim to sell 30 million in the next 12. Unlike Blackberrys, most WM phones are bought by consumers out of their own pocket. While WM could do a lot more media-wise, this has not stopped the OEM’s from making the devices more media-centric, like the HTC Touch Diamond or Samsung Omnia.
You ask who the customers of WM are, and the answer is the OEM’s selling the software, just like the OEM’s like Dell and HP are Microsoft’s real customer of Windows.
If these customers want to maintain sales they will have to face up to the demands of the Internet and media-centric world, and ask for a WM better suited to these areas. Microsoft is in the process of delivering, and WM7 should be everything they have asked for.
In short, stop counting Windows Mobile out – that would be a major mistake and leave you muddled and confused.